Result of Service

The project aims to strengthen fiscal resilience in the Maldives by integrating disaster scenarios affecting critical infrastructure into macro-fiscal analysis. It will enhance institutional capacity for risk-informed fiscal planning, support better allocation of resources toward resilience investments, and improve understanding of how climate-related shocks translate into fiscal stress in a highly exposed Small Island Developing State (SIDS).

Work Location

Male, Maldives

Expected duration

8 months

Duties and Responsibilities

Created in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to reduce disasters and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations and regional organizations and activities in both developed and less developed countries. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG), UNDRR has over 120 staff located in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional offices. Specifically, UNDRR guides, monitors, analyses and reports on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, supports regional and national implementation of the Framework and catalyzes action and increases global awareness to reduce disaster risk working with UN Member States and a broad range of partners and stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector, parliamentarians and the science and technology community. The Maldives is a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) with a highly concentrated economic structure. Tourism accounts for approximately 25–30% of GDP and more than 60% of foreign exchange earnings, making the economy particularly sensitive to external demand shocks and climate-related disruptions. The country’s fiscal revenues are also closely linked to tourism-related taxes and import duties. Public debt levels have increased significantly over the past decade, reflecting large-scale infrastructure investments and fiscal pressures. According to recent IMF assessments, public and publicly guaranteed debt remains elevated relative to GDP, constraining fiscal space and increasing vulnerability to shocks. The Maldives is one of the most climate-exposed countries in the world. With an average ground elevation of approximately 1.5 meters above sea level, the country is highly vulnerable to coastal flooding, storm surges, sea-level rise, and extreme rainfall events. Critical infrastructure—including airports, ports, energy systems, water and sanitation networks, and tourism facilities—is predominantly located in low-lying coastal areas. Disaster-induced damages to such infrastructure can generate macroeconomic transmission effects through: Declines in tourism arrivals and service exports; Disruptions to transport and logistics; Reconstruction-related expenditure pressures; Revenue volatility; Increased borrowing requirements and implications for debt sustainability. Given the Maldives’ structural exposure and fiscal constraints, integrating disaster scenarios affecting critical infrastructure into a macro-fiscal stress framework is essential to assess potential impacts on GDP growth, fiscal balance, and debt dynamics. The Budget Stress Testing exercise will support the Ministry of Finance in evaluating how infrastructure-related disaster shocks may translate into fiscal stress and macroeconomic instability, while strengthening institutional coordination for data collection and model integration. The consultant will undertake the following tasks: 1. Scenario Development Contribute to the developing disaster and economic stress scenarios specific to the Maldives, focusing on climate-related hazards (coastal flooding, storm surges, extreme rainfall) and tourism-related external shocks. Coordinate the collection and validation of relevant macro-fiscal, infrastructure, and disaster data in coordination with the Ministry of Finance and other relevant institutions. Facilitate inter-agency consultations to ensure scenarios reflect national priorities and economic realities. 2. Economic and Fiscal Modeling Provide technical interpretation of macro-fiscal modeling outputs to ensure alignment with the Maldives’ economic structure and climate exposure. Work jointly with the data scientist consultant by facilitating access to required fiscal and macroeconomic data. Provide technical assessment of assessment of implications for fiscal balances, debt sustainability, and fiscal buffers. 3. Risk and Policy Integration Contribute to evaluation of existing disaster risk financing instruments and resilience investments. Identify fiscal vulnerabilities related to critical infrastructure exposure. Facilitate the integration of Budget Stress Test findings into fiscal planning and public financial management processes. 4. Stakeholder Engagement and Capacity Building Coordinate technical workshops and stakeholder consultations. Facilitate coordination between the Ministry of Finance, National Disaster Management Authority, and relevant agencies. Review relevant analytical work from international partners (ADB, World Bank, IMF, UNDP) where needed. 5. Reporting and Documentation Prepare technical reports summarizing scenarios, modeling results, and policy implications. Provide inputs to strengthen risk-informed fiscal decision-making in the Maldives.

Qualifications/special skills

Advanced university degree in Economics or a related field is required. A first-level university degree in Economics or a related field, combined with a minimum of two additional years of relevant professional experience, may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. - A minimum of ten years of relevant experience in macroeconomic analysis, fiscal policy, macro-fiscal forecasting, debt sustainability analysis, and public financial management is required. - Proven experience in country-level macro-fiscal frameworks, including Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks (MTFF), budget formulation, and debt sustainability analysis (DSA), is required. - Experience in quantitative economic analysis, econometrics, and scenario-based policy assessment is required. - Experience working with Ministries of Finance, Central Banks, and international financial institutions on macroeconomic and fiscal policy issues is required. ข Experience in assessing fiscal risks related to climate-related vulnerabilities in a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) context is desirable.

Languages

Fluency in English and Maldivian is required.

Due to the high volume of applications received, only successful candidates will be contacted.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.